Investing in technology could help businesses deal with their current difficulties and come out of the crisis stronger, so that they are seen more as an investment than an expense. At least theoretically, this is the mindset that has been adopted by corporate IT leaders. But the fact is that, in light of the present economic situation, the majority are focusing on cost reduction. And the ICT market is feeling the consequences. “Companies are rethinking their top priorities, investing in projects that bring immediate return on their investments, postponing the implementation of major IT projects, and turning to subcontracting to lower their cost structures,” explains Laura Converso, analyst at IDC Europe in Dealer World. Meanwhile, the magazine Channel Partner, which belongs to the same publisher as the previous citation, quotes Richard Gordon, vice president of research at Gartner: “While the global economic downturn shows signs of easing, this year IT budgets are still being cut and consumers will need a lot more persuading before they can feel confident enough to loosen their purse strings.”
In this difficult year of 2009, global providers such as IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Adobe, Intel and Yahoo! are still earning money, though in general are turning less profits than in previous years, due in part to the falling prices. One notable exception is Apple, which has experienced a stock outage with its iPhone 3G S, and reported 14.6% growth for its fiscal third quarter, outperforming its revenue numbers posted for the non-Christmas season. But some of the giants took large steps backwards, such as Nokia.
The fact of the matter is that the global ICT market this year is taking a historic beating, in sharp contrast with the sustained growth seen in recent years. International consulting firms have repeatedly downgraded their forecasts for 2009, which were already rather gloomy. Gartner has adjusted its initial predictions of a 3.8% decline in the global IT market in 2009, saying we are more likely to see a 6% dip, with hardware taking a nosedive (-16%) and software inching up 1.6%.
The French newspaper Les Echos recently cited forecasts put out by the Japanese economic research institute Yano, which include global sales of 1.094 billion mobile devices, with a 7.5% decline “due to the tumbling revenues for the first half of the year, which will not be offset by the upturn of the second half.” Gartner, meanwhile, expects PC sales to drop 5% in the second quarter.
As for the Spanish market, IDC in January anticipated flat growth or at most a decline of 1% for 2009. But in mid June the EITO report predicted that in 2009, “the volume of ICT business in Spain will see a decline of 1.7 percent to 57.2 billion euro.” According to the European observatory, IT hardware will fall 7.4% whereas the “much more stable” IT software and services market will remain at its 2008 level. Will that really be the case? “The service sector does have some projects already underway but any new ones are being shelved. Prices are actually going down and customers are becoming more demanding,” explained Josep Mir, account manager for the public sector at T-Systems.
In a nutshell: 2009 is a forgettable year.
Articles in Channel Partner (spanish), Cinco Días (spanish), Dealer World (spanish) and Reuters