The Shape of the Economy to Come?
The large economies are set to regain their position in the driving seat, dislodging China from its pole position.
For the first time since the economic crisis began, the US, the UK and the central economies of the European Union are starting to show positive growth and are once again taking their place at the head of the group of countries leading the global economy out of recession.
The fall in oil prices and the slowdown in China have driven this change. Though it is, and might continue to be, characterized by an "extremely unequal" recovery, according to Pedro Videla, head of IESE’s Economics Department.
Professor Videla was joined by Professor Núria Mas at a Continuous Education Session for alumni held in Barcelona this month. Advanced economies are returning to levels recorded before the recession, said Videla. By contrast, countries on the periphery of Europe and Japan are not seeing the same kind of recovery.
The Outlook for Coming Months
Videla outlined a number of changes that could affect the global economy over the coming months relate to the following:
Greece: A European Headache
Growth is not only uneven globally, but also inside of Europe, said Núria Mas.
While France and Germany have now exceeded the GDP levels recorded prior to the crisis, recovery in the countries around the periphery of Europe has been much slower – as we have seen in both Greece and Spain.
Recovery in the Eurozone is threatened by the current uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt, and repayments due in the short term. If Athens fails to meet its debts and make the forthcoming repayment to the ECB, the ECB will not be able to continue accepting Greek bonds as a guarantee for its emergency funding. This could see the country become insolvent and even leave the euro.
Mas believes that the main problem with a potential Greek exit would be the loss of credibility for the European project, which until now has been seen as irreversible.
If one country leaves the euro, she said, we could see a knock-on effect, with others taking the same route as and when they find themselves in difficulties without sufficient support from EU partners.