Navigating Geopolitics

By Massimo Maoret

For today’s managers, geopolitics is impossible to ignore. A decade ago, it was just one among many risks to consider in business strategy; today, it sits at the top of the agenda.

We see this shift in our classrooms. Discussions of global expansion once treated the BRICS — and especially China — as obvious opportunities. Then volatility grew, and decisions became far less clear. For me, the turning point came when a guest speaker — a leading private equity investor — told me how she had just invested in Kyiv, only for Russia to invade weeks later. Her question — what now? — captures a stark truth: a lack of proper geopolitical analysis can upend strategy overnight.

Strategy has always been about preparing for an unknowable future. That future now feels even less predictable. Yet leaders can still act: by minimizing risks, building resilience and staying ready to adapt as events unfold.

Geopolitics is entangled with technology, markets and society, demanding leaders who can think broadly, connect dots and manage across complexity. I sometimes joke that managers may need fewer conversations with economists, and more with sociologists, psychologists and political scientists.

Energy, the field I study, shows how deep this transformation runs. What was once considered a stable, technical, even “boring” industry is now shaped by transformative forces: the green transition, breakthrough technologies, polarized politics and intensifying rivalry among great powers. Europe’s decarbonization drive pressures Russia, still dependent on revenues from oil and gas. China imports vast amounts of energy even as it races to achieve independence by dominating clean technologies. The United States remains deeply divided, swinging between fossil fuels and renewables. These tensions spill across borders and industries, redrawing the competitive landscape and exacerbating social divides.

The stable institutional foundations that supported global growth for decades can no longer be taken for granted. Tariffs, national security concerns and shifting alliances are reshaping the global map of opportunity. Expansion decisions are harder, the risks higher — but the rewards can be greater for those who navigate wisely.

That is why our Strategic Management Department recently convened a workshop on geopolitics: to recognize its central role in competitive strategy today. The reflections that emerged helped shape this special report. Use it as a compass for these turbulent times. We hope it will help you make sense of the forces reshaping the business world, see connections others overlook, and chart a course forward with clarity and confidence.

As the rules-based world order crumbles, resilience and deterrence are the new rules of the game.

The Russia-Ukraine war is not just a military crisis; it’s a crisis for the rules-based order that characterized international relations since the end of World War II. And just like governments are preparing for a world where conflict and disruption are no longer rare occurrences, businesses, too, must strengthen key capabilities, like resilience, in anticipation of systemic risks.

In this interview, the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Spanish Armed Forces, Admiral General Teodoro E. Lopez Calderon (pictured), discusses the challenges ahead with IESE Prof. Santiago Alvarez de Mon.

READ FULL INTERVIEW >

By Mike Rosenberg

If we look at what’s going on in the world today, we can react with anger, dismay, even rage. But how useful is all of that? From a business point of view, at some point we have to recognize the reality we’re living in, move on, and try to figure out what to do about it. For companies, in my view, there are a few things that business leaders need to do.

WATCH VIDEO COMMENTARY >