What´s in store for 2024?

Every year, The Economist takes a stab at analyzing and predicting the key challenges facing the planet in an overview called “The World Ahead” piloted by Tom Standage, the magazine´s Deputy Editor.

This year, the world´s attention will focus on a slew of elections, culminating in a fiercely contested U.S. presidential vote in November, as more than 70 polls in countries that are home to over half of the world´s population take place, Standage told an IESE Alumni session hosted by Professor Juan José Toribio.

Meanwhile, the rhetoric around a “new cold war” is hardening as tensions rise over Taiwan. In other big trends, 2024 will be the year Artificial Intelligence “gets real” as more businesses adopt it and scrutiny by regulators increases, according to Standage.

Here´s a look at some of the key trends that Standage highlighted in his talk at IESE´s Madrid campus:

Vote Fest

2024 is the year when more than half of humanity will go to the polls in countries from the U.S. and India to Russia and the U.K., Standage noted. The election season kicks off as soon as this weekend with elections in Taiwan that could prove pivotal for U.S.-China relations and geopolitical tensions in the region.

America Chooses

While just a few months ago, the chances of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election were one in three, it´s now ”a coin-toss” as the former president continues to build support, Standage said. A Trump victory, perhaps delivered by a few tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states, would imperil U.S. commitment to NATO and the country´s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Given that Vladimir Putin’s victory in upcoming elections is assured, his fate could depend more on American voters than Russian ones, Standage said.

Europe´s Time to Step Up

With Putin hoping for a Trump victory, it´s time for Europe to act by mobilizing its industrial base in support of Ukraine, Standage said. While the region already provides Kyiv with significant aid, it must do more ”as an insurance policy against Donald Trump regaining power.”

Middle East Turmoil

Hamas´s attack on Israel, and Israel´s invasion of Gaza, have spurred fresh tumult in the region, said Standage. Even so, there is a “tiny, tiny ray of hope” that, amid the carnage, a new path toward peace could emerge with the Palestinian question back on the international agenda. Again, much could depend on the outcome of the U.S. vote as Trump would be unlikely to put pressure on Israel to make any concessions, according to Standage.

Multipolar Disorder

Old conflicts are sparking back into life as the “unipolar moment” for the U.S., distracted by war in Ukraine and now Gaza, passes, Standage said. The Sahel region in Africa is a key flashpoint, while Venezuela´s saber-rattling toward Guyana is another sign of rising tensions. Meanwhile, competition for green resources is reshaping politics and trade, he said.

AI in Focus

2024 is the year AI “gets real” as more firms adopt it and regulators scrutinize it more closely. Amid the angst over its impact on jobs and potential for election-meddling, the biggest impact of AI will be to spur faster coding, said Standage.

Writing and editing “The World Ahead 2024” proved a challenging task as the Israel-Hamas conflict erupted in October. Preparing next year´s edition may prove even trickier as the world braces for volatile U.S. elections whose consequences may still be unclear when the 2025 edition goes to press, he said.